The Incentive Likelihood score
Can they afford it, and will they do it.
Capacity — Can They Afford It
The capacity half of the score reads an entity’s fiscal base from Texas Comptroller revenue data — sales tax, property-tax levy, and hotel occupancy tax — then measures borrowing headroom from Texas Bond Review Board debt data, including outstanding debt, per-capita debt, and the split between tax-supported and revenue debt. A city with strong revenue and low debt has room to fund an incentive; one already at its debt ceiling does not.
Propensity — Are They Willing
The propensity half reads the entity’s actual track record. SiteData counts prior Chapter 380 and Chapter 381 economic development agreements, Chapter 312 tax abatements, and active TIRZ/TIF reinvestment zones. A government that has repeatedly used these tools is far more likely to do so again than one that never has.
A Red / Yellow / Green Verdict
Capacity and propensity combine into a single 0–100 Incentive Likelihood score, shown as a Low, Moderate, or High verdict in red, yellow, or green. The capacity and propensity drivers are broken out beneath the verdict so you can see whether a hesitant score comes from thin finances, a thin track record, or both.
Scored Statewide
Incentive Likelihood is computed for roughly 1,180 Texas cities and all 254 counties. It appears in each city’s profile panel on the map and in the Signal Report PDF export, so you can rank targets before you ever pick up the phone.
The Underlying Data, Surfaced
Beyond the score, SiteData surfaces the raw inputs: sales-tax allocations and rates, hotel occupancy tax, mixed-beverage receipts, active TIRZ counts, and a registry of Chapter 380/381 agreements and Chapter 312 abatements per city and county. You can read the evidence behind every verdict.
Signal Report Context
The AI Signal Report turns the numbers into a plain-language read on a county or city’s development posture — how aggressively it uses incentives, where its fiscal capacity stands, and how it compares to peers. The Incentive Likelihood score is embedded directly in the export.
The incentive tools
Every major Texas incentive, tracked per entity.
Chapter 380 / 381 Agreements
Chapter 380 of the Local Government Code lets a municipality make loans and grants of public money to promote economic development; Chapter 381 gives counties the same authority. These are the most flexible Texas incentives — cash grants, sales-tax or property-tax rebates, and infrastructure participation. SiteData maintains a registry of these agreements per city and county and folds prior activity into the propensity score.
Chapter 312 Tax Abatements
Chapter 312 of the Tax Code lets cities, counties, and special districts abate property taxes on new value for up to ten years to attract investment. Because abatements touch the property-tax levy, both a government’s levy base and its abatement history feed the Incentive Likelihood score.
TIRZ / Tax Increment Reinvestment Zones
A TIRZ captures the growth in property-tax value inside a defined zone and reinvests that increment into public improvements within the zone. Active TIRZ counts signal a government that is already comfortable financing development, and SiteData surfaces those counts alongside the score.
Type A / Type B EDCs
Economic development corporations funded by a dedicated local sales tax — Type A for primarily industrial and manufacturing projects, Type B for a broader range of community and quality-of-life projects. An active EDC is a standing source of incentive dollars, and its sales-tax base is visible in the Comptroller data SiteData surfaces.
Data sources
Built on state fiscal data, not guesswork.
The capacity half of the score reads sales tax, property-tax levy, and hotel occupancy tax from Texas Comptroller data, then measures borrowing headroom from Texas Bond Review Board debt data — outstanding debt, per-capita debt, and the tax-supported versus revenue split. The propensity half reads the entity's own record of Chapter 380/381 agreements, Chapter 312 abatements, and active TIRZ zones. SiteData surfaces the raw inputs — sales-tax allocations and rates, mixed-beverage receipts, active TIRZ counts, and the agreement registry — behind every verdict.
FAQ
Common questions about Texas incentives.
How do I find which Texas cities offer economic development incentives?
On SiteData, open any city or county profile and read its Incentive Likelihood score. The score is computed for roughly 1,180 Texas cities and all 254 counties, and it is backed by a registry of that entity’s Chapter 380/381 agreements, Chapter 312 abatements, and active TIRZ zones. Rather than calling every economic development office, you can rank entities by their likelihood to grant an incentive and see the underlying track record before you reach out.
What is the difference between Chapter 380 and Chapter 381 agreements?
They are the same idea at two levels of government. Chapter 380 of the Texas Local Government Code authorizes cities to make loans and grants of public money — cash grants, sales-tax rebates, property-tax rebates, and infrastructure participation — to promote economic development. Chapter 381 grants Texas counties the same authority. Both are highly flexible, which is why they are the most common negotiated incentives in Texas. SiteData tracks both in its agreement registry.
What is a Chapter 312 tax abatement?
Chapter 312 of the Texas Tax Code lets cities, counties, and certain special districts temporarily abate property taxes on the new value a project adds — typically for up to ten years — to attract capital investment. Because abatements act directly on the property-tax levy, a government’s levy base and its history of granting abatements both feed SiteData’s Incentive Likelihood score.
What is a TIRZ?
A TIRZ, or Tax Increment Reinvestment Zone, is a defined area where the growth in property-tax value above a baseline is captured and reinvested into public improvements inside that zone. It funds infrastructure without raising tax rates. A jurisdiction with active TIRZ zones has already shown it will use tax-increment financing to support development, so SiteData surfaces active TIRZ counts and factors them into the propensity side of the score.
How does SiteData score a city’s likelihood to grant an incentive?
The Incentive Likelihood score is a 0–100 measure of how likely a city or county government is to provide a financial incentive, combining two questions. Capacity — can they afford it — is built from Texas Comptroller revenue data (sales tax, property-tax levy, hotel occupancy tax) and Texas Bond Review Board debt data (outstanding debt, per-capita debt, tax-supported versus revenue debt). Propensity — are they willing — is built from the entity’s actual record of Chapter 380/381 agreements, Chapter 312 abatements, and active TIRZ zones. The result is shown as a red, yellow, or green Low / Moderate / High verdict with the capacity and propensity drivers broken out.
What is the difference between a Type A and a Type B EDC?
Both are economic development corporations funded by a dedicated local sales tax adopted by a Texas city. A Type A EDC is oriented toward primarily industrial and manufacturing projects — business infrastructure, land, buildings, and job-creating facilities. A Type B EDC can fund a broader set of community and quality-of-life projects in addition to industrial ones. An active EDC represents a standing pool of incentive dollars, and its sales-tax base is visible in the Comptroller data SiteData surfaces.
See who's likely to say yes.
1-day free trial, then $50/month. Incentive Likelihood scores for ~1,180 cities and all 254 counties, with the Comptroller and Bond Review Board data behind every verdict.